Mailbag for January 9, 2026
Some Golden Globes predictions, LOTS of questions and answers about 'Heated Rivalry', the definition of a hit movie these days, Netflix and the theatrical window for Warner Bros., and a bit on driving
Dear Squawkers,
It’s Golden Globes weekend and we are live-chatting on Sunday, 11 January, starting at 730pm ET. It’ll be Sarah, Duana, and me for the last half hour or so of arrivals and then the entire telecast before we start writing the content for LaineyGossip through the night. We will blast out the chat link to paying Squawk subscribers just before we go live. We hope you can join us!
While we’re here though, and before we get to questions, something I haven’t done in a long time: predict the Globes winners. Not based on preference but on how I think the starfuckers at the Golden Globes will vote. Sarah is the one who usually does our Oscar predictions, because she’s our film critic, and a serious person. I am not a film critic and I’m an unserious person, so the Globes are perfect for me. We’d love to read your predictions below in the comments if you feel like sharing. Mine are as follows:
Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
One Battle After Another
Best Motion Picture, Drama
Sinners
Best Director, Motion Picture
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Best Actress, Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Best Actor, Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Best Actress, Motion Picture, Drama
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Best Actor, Motion Picture, Drama
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Best Supporting Actress, Motion Picture
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good … can these starfuckers resist rewarding a popstar?
Best Supporting Actor, Motion Picture
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Best Screenplay
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Best Motion Picture, Non-English Language
Sentimental Value
Best Animated Motion Picture
Kpop Demon Hunters
Best Original Score
Ludwig Göransson, Sinners
Best Original Song
“Golden”, KPop Demon Hunters
Cinematic and Box Office Achievement (a ludicrous category)
Sinners
Best TV Series, Comedy
The Studio – there’s literally an episode of the show that takes place at the Globes. They will not pass up this opportunity.
Best TV Series, Drama
The Pitt
Best Limited Series
Adolescence
Best Actress, TV Comedy
Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face – this is a swing, because Jean Smart is the heavily presumed favourite, but the Globes are known for a curveball in this category
Best Actor, TV Comedy
Seth Rogen, The Studio
Best Actress, TV Drama
Rhea Seehorn, Pluribus – Britt Lower won the Emmy but the Globes like new shows
Best Actor, TV Drama
Noah Wyle, The Pitt
Best Actress, Limited Series
Sarah Snook, All Her Fault
Best Actor, Limited Series
Stephen Graham, Adolescence
Best Supporting Actress, TV
Parker Posey, The White Lotus
Best Supporting Actor, TV
Tramell Tillman, Severance
Best Podcast
Good Hang with Amy Poehler
Best Stand-Up
I abstain because, UGH, I don’t want to say his fucking name.
Now it’s your turn, in the comments below.
To our first mailbag of the year and there are a LOT of questions about Heated Rivalry, lol. We’ve tried to get to most of them.
Question from Rachel Lopez:
Heated Rivalry: HOW did these 2 main actors’ people make decisions on their immediate follow-ups (Quinn’s fae romantasy?); what were the missteps and triumphs; and thoughts/more context on HW signing with CAA shortly followed by CS this past month? Also still need more inside info from L.
Lainey’s Answer:
This is purely speculative about Quinn and Hudson Williams and Connor Storrie voicing the audio romance, Ember & Ice, which was announced at the very end of the year in December. Culturally it’s a good decision, so it’s not like their people would have been hesitant if the project was “right” for them – they’ve just broken out playing horny queer characters, and Quinn is marketed to all horny people no matter their sexual orientation or preferences, it’s a great follow-up on the success of Heated Rivalry.
Doing an audio project is also not as heavy of a lift comparatively. There’s no hair and makeup required, and there’s no blocking required on set with lighting and etc etc which eats up soooooo much time. So they would have been able to perform their roles relatively quickly, at least when you consider how much time it takes to shoot a series or a movie. And then, on top of that, it’s quick money.
Remember, Hudson and Connor were unknown quantities when they booked Heated Rivalry. It would have been a decent paycheque for them, at the time, as their first major leading roles, but…like…not that much money (this is a Canadian production, our budgets are smaller), probably not enough money to buy a house. And they haven’t worked much since filming wrapped. These are young men in their 20s who probably don’t have a lot of savings yet and who work in a high-risk industry. They were waiting tables less than a year ago and the reality is that just because they became sudden superstars, attention doesn’t make you rich. They don’t make money from interviews and fan edits on Twitter and TikTok. They’re working, because promotion is work, but they’re not getting all that much extra pay beyond what they already signed in their initial contracts. And to be clear, very, very clear, I’m not saying they’re getting ripped off – this is just how the business functions.
So if I’m their agents, the deal with Quinn, in addition to tracking with their new image, also gets Hudson and Connor paid right away. Not a bank, but at least there’s something coming in to bridge the gap. And now they can continue to build on the momentum and consider new opportunities for work.
Some of your other questions overlap with others, so I’ll get to those below.
Question from Kathryn L-B:
Another HR question! In short: how do we protect Connor, Hudson, and Jacob?!? ESP Connor and Hudson. I know they are grown men who have watched others navigate this, but that spotlight has to be INTENSE. I know it’s not the early 2000s anymore, but I still just worry for them as people who hit fame sooo fast.
Lainey’s Answer:
It’s always a worry, I get it. Their ascent has been explosive, it must be so overwhelming. For Jacob, my hope is that he’s not rushed into the second season and can take whatever time he needs to make it happen. Obviously, like everyone else, the wait for season two sucks but it’s also encouraging that they’re saying 2027, at least a year from now, because it means that they’re not pushing them into production. Like, season one was already a scramble, did you know that? They actually moved up the release date – it was originally supposed to drop in February 2026, that’s a THREE-MONTH DIFFERENCE! Jacob has said a few times, including at the Toronto premiere, that they were still editing the back half of the season when the first two episodes were released. When I screened the first two episodes a week ahead of the Toronto premiere, it wasn’t even the final cut.
The HBO deal might have been the reason for this, and that’s not unusual, for distribution partners to suggest new timelines in order to best attract the widest audience. Clearly this was a good decision, as holiday viewership was huge for Heated Rivalry. No one has regrets about it, but the point is, there would have been an impact on the creative team. Everyone’s personal lives would have been affected, rest was sacrificed. And creatives need to rest! Breaks are critical to creativity.
As for Hudson and Connor and how to “protect” them – that’s a bigger conversation about fan responsibility and boundaries and…um…I think we’re too far gone for that now since they’re basically eliciting mega popstar reactions wherever they go with the crowds and the screaming. That said, they have teams in place whose job it is to, hopefully, find that balance.
Both Hudson and Connor have just signed with CAA, so they’re being represented by the biggest agency with all kinds of resources. What was encouraging, to me at least, about Hudson’s representation upgrade is that he will continue to be managed by Elena Kirschner at RED Management, based in Vancouver. So it’s not that he’s gone full Hollywood, the fact that his original manager, the person who’s been guiding his career since the beginning, is still with him is a good sign. Connor’s management team also remains the same. The deal with Quinn meant that both their teams are aligned, at least for now, in how to get them through these early days of hysteria.
And also, on an interpersonal level, there’s the solo act vs group act thing. In thinking about Hudson and Connor going through this together, I’m reminded of all the discussions Duana and I have had about Beyoncé and what we don’t talk enough about as one of the keys to her rise to superstardom: she didn’t start out as an individual artist. We were introduced to Beyoncé as part of a group, Destiny’s Child. And, sure, it was always evident that Beyoncé was the standout and would eventually break out on her own, but spending the early years of fame in a collective was helpful to her because she wasn’t alone in the experience. To go back to Hudson and Connor, maybe it can work the same way for them.
A better example might be Ben Affleck and Matt Damon – not that there haven’t been stumbles, from one half of that duo in particular – but they always had each other, and if they didn’t, who knows where it could have gone. With Ben and Matt, too, it never felt like one person was getting more opportunities/attention than the other, and all these decades later, they are equally famous/successful. I wondered about this a few weeks ago re: Hudson and Connor. Since Connor is American and because Ilya is the flashier character, I felt a bit of anxiety about whether or not Hudson would be overshadowed… and now, a month later, this isn’t a concern at all. They’re advancing at the same pace, no one is ahead of the other. And in a competitive industry with fragile egos, this is important. They won’t always work together, of course, but only they know what they’re going through, forging a bond that, hopefully, will last when they move on to other projects independently.
Question from Marina:
For the HR mailbag! I’m not sure if this has been talked about already but curious about how Lainey got involved and did you have any idea how big it’d become while you were preparing/filming? I just watched the finale and like everyone else, I’m obsessed.
Lainey’s Answer:
Just want to make the corniest observation here but I can’t help myself, it kills me that Heated Rivalry is often referred to online, not just here but across the internet and socials, as “HR” which, previously, when you hear those two letters together, you think “Human Resources”. Because this is a show that, were you to watch it in some workplaces, would be considered a violation of HR. We laughed about this a lot at my workplace because on any given day for weeks, you could walk by a monitor with Ilya’s shower scene playing in slow motion and, legitimately it was “work”, LOL FOREVER.
Anyway, you’re asking about how I got involved and did I know it would blow up and I actually answered this question in the last mailbag of 2025, but it was posted just before the holidays and, well, a lot of you probably hadn’t gotten on the HR train yet and now…you have. So I’ll just copy and paste what I wrote three weeks ago for those who are now fully on board.
Heated Rivalry airs on Crave. I’m a reporter on ETALK, which also airs on Crave. So that scene was kept in-house. Can’t remember exactly when we filmed it, but I want to say early summer-ish? What I do remember, clearly, is that when our executive producer, my boss, came to me about the request, I surprised him with my enthusiasm. My answer was basically, “OMG A HORNY GAY SHOW, I WANT YES PLEASE WHEN TELL ME EVERYTHING”. And then I kept him in my office for at least 15 minutes talking about how obsessed I am with BL yearning and how Asia has been so ahead on BL storytelling, and how BL shows from the East are blowing up internationally. I was so feral, I think I might have scared him.
My point is, I’m not all that surprised that people are reacting to Heated Rivalry so intensely. Because I’d already been seeing this play out with the BL dramas (Boys Love or yaoi) coming out of Thailand and Korea, and now China is actually making what have been the most viral BLs this year from the East but expanding beyond the East in viewership.
So of course, I wanted to be a part of a new BL show coming from Canada and honestly? I can’t pretend that I wasn’t self-serving about it. Like, of course, I was hoping for it to be successful for the cast and the crew, some of whom I actually know personally, but also…girl… GIRL. Bring me some of that smoke, too!
Have I been loud about being available for another cameo in season two? Obviously, LOL. I can even think of a scene from The Long Game (the book sequel) where Tyrone Edwards and I could make another appearance. But at this point, every reporter wants a piece of it. And celebrities, too. Joanna told me the other day that Ayo Edebiri has been liking every post she sees about it. I interviewed Myha’la Herrold from Industry the other day and when I asked her about Heated Rivalry, she could not stop gushing. That’s what this show is doing – bringing the gush!
Question from Patty:
What is the definition of a hit movie these days? Is it box office, is it reviews, is it nominations, is it awards?
Sarah’s answer:
It depends on the intention of the producers/filmmakers/distributors. Sometimes, just getting a film made and seen by someone, anyone, is what makes it a hit. But let’s take a film like Marty Supreme. It’s rated R, which right away limits the audience/box office. A generation ago, opening an R-rated, character-driven drama on Christmas day, starring a very popular actor, would pull maybe $30-40 million.
Like remember David O. Russell’s film, American Hustle? It was an R-rated, character-driven period piece, not unlike Marty Supreme. It opened on December 13, I remember screenings being sold out on Christmas day. That film, like Marty Supreme, opened in six theaters, then expanded wide in its second week, the weekend before Christmas. That second weekend, the first one in wide release, the film pulled $26.5 million, adjusted for inflation ($19 million in 2013 dollars).
In the same second-weekend frame, when it expanded into wide release, Marty Supreme pulled $15.7 million. This is not a knock on Timothée Chalamet as a star, this is an example of how the business has changed. American Hustle pulled in $251 million in its global theatrical run. Marty is currently sitting at $70 million. It’ll probably top $100 million, but you can see the depreciation that has happened in the last decade (mostly in the last few years, though, post-pandemic when audience habits seem to have permanently shifted away from theaters).
Still, by the current standard, Marty is a hit. It would be a bigger hit if the budget wasn’t upwards of $70 million, but again, you can see how the business has shifted. Movies never get cheaper to make, especially now, when top-tier stars like Chalamet are demanding more of their salary up front (less opportunity to get screwed over that way). Between rising production costs, especially A-list salary demands, and shrinking audiences, “what is a hit” is an ever-moving target.
Certainly, the people behind Marty, including distributor A24, hope to make money, and they probably will, just probably not as much as they once would have, in the old economics of the business. But the movie is also pushing merch, which increases the profit margin, and then there are all the nominations and awards, which burnishes everyone’s reputation. So yeah, Marty is a hit, though it’s not the same kind of hit it would have been 20 years ago.
Question from Kristin:
This may be too late for this week, so if it doesn’t make it, I’ll submit again. I saw a headline yesterday that if the Netflix/WB merger goes through, Netflix would allow a 17 day theatrical window for WB movies. That seems short? And how does someone like James Gunn, who’s making DC content, fit into a merger like this with a short/non-existent theater window?
Sarah’s answer:
Here’s an article on the possible 17-day theatrical window for Warner Bros., should Netflix seal the deal and acquire the company (not a guarantee! The Department of “Justice” is nosing around!).
That is a short theatrical window, though it is in line with Netflix’s current practice of releasing films into theaters for two-ish weeks; 17 days is two weekends in theaters, which is about all Netflix has been willing to give so far. But given that Warners has been one of the studios better about theatrical releases—barring Jason Kilar’s disastrous day-and-date scheme in 2021—this would be a huge blow to the theatrical releasing environment.
I truly cannot imagine how this would work for James Gunn, who gained his position as both a filmmaker and a boss before this new (potential) regime came to be. Perhaps he can leverage something better for DC Studios, guaranteeing at least their biggest films will get longer theatrical windows, but who really knows? Netflix is simply not in the theatrical business. They don’t want Warners for distribution. They want it for physical production space (the studio lot in Los Angeles), and its historic library of films and TV shows to boost Netflix’s own, increasingly shit library (His & Hers is their latest execrable offering). I suspect Netflix bosses will be more likely to play ball with the producers of a show like The Pitt and preserve a weekly episode schedule than they will with directors who want longer theatrical windows.
I have asked multiple people at Netflix why filmmakers keep making deals with them when they KNOW Netflix doesn’t support theatrical distribution, and the answer was the same every time—they all think they’re going to change the top boss’s minds. Everyone goes into their Netflix deal thinking they’ll be the one to turn it into a theatrical company. But they are! Not! In! That! Business! I don’t see that acquiring Warners will change that, overall, though we might see a few more exceptions in which they agree to, maybe, a full 30 days in theaters before dumping into the app’s content firehose. Still, I don’t think Netflix will change their ways should they acquire Warners. I think Warners will bend to fit Netflix’s shape.
Question from Charlotte:
Random Personal Question: How do you (LaineyGossip team members) feel about driving? Do you all drive? Do you like to drive? Or hate it? Or you just do it and it isn’t something to feel any way about? As Toronto/Chicago/Vancouver residents w/out kids maybe it just isn’t that necessary?
Jacek’s Answer:
This is a fun random question! And I’ll answer it for a couple of us.
First, Emily: Funny story was when she joined us a full 16 years ago (!!!) she, like a lot of young people at the time, lived downtown and didn’t have her license yet but had let a learner’s license expire, so she had made some attempt to drive. She was a bit paranoid about this fact, we later found out, because she didn’t want to diminish her chances of us hiring her, with visions of having responsibilities running around the city for us. Little did she know that not once have we never needed her to do anything away from her computer, aside from joining us at events or something of the sort. Since then, Emily has indeed learned to drive, has a license, but prefers transit.
I went all-in on avoiding the car as much as possible after our trip to Japan in 2023 (where we took trains everywhere), taking the Toronto commuter train (called Go) or the subway if I have to get downtown because I cannot stand driving downtown or trying to find parking. And I say ‘even’ because there was a time when you would not ever find me taking public transit. But also, working from home always made that easier.
To your point about not having kids and not needing a car as much, I hear you on that, but we have dogs, and take our dogs in the car a lot for reasons to do with weather and mobility and also we like going on trails with them that aren’t in our neighbourhood.
Lainey’s Answer:
Charlotte, swear to God, I was just thinking the other day what I would say if someone asked me about driving in the mailbag. Because I have a lot to say – or bitch about. So thanks for the opportunity, but you might regret it since I’m about to go off.
I enjoy the act of driving, and I’m a good driver. Jacek and I have only had manual transmission cars, and driving stick is fun. I refuse to drive automatic, and I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, driving stick makes you a better driver and the quality of driving on the road would improve if more people drove stick. This is part of why I don’t drive much anymore. I stopped driving to work three years ago because the traffic in Toronto is hideous and also the skill level of drivers now is abysmal. Most people who drive an SUV do not know the dimensions of their SUV and cannot properly maneuver with the size of an SUV. Every day I was popping off trying to pass a person in the opposite direction driving an SUV in the middle of the road because they lacked the proficiency to stay on their side of the road and get too close to the parked cars. When drivers know the dimensions of their cars, there is enough room for two cars and a row of parked cars on most streets in Toronto. As an organically angry person, driving was making me too aggressive.
But also, as a busy person, driving was taking up too much time – and I don’t just mean the traffic. I’m a compulsive and effective multitasker. I can’t just do one thing, this is also why driving stick suits me, because managing gear changes occupies my mind, thinking through the right speeds when I’m shifting up or down, achieving the smoothest gear change, and using the clutch and the gears to reduce usage of the breaks, on top of paying attention to the surroundings – it’s actually better for me and how I’m wired for me to drive manual. When I drive though, I only drive. Which means I can’t work, I can’t read, I can’t get back to emails, I can’t research. And since I’m writing LaineyGossip and The Squawk and reporting and sometimes producing on a daily entertainment news show, my days are so tightly scheduled that I make use of, literally, every minute, obsessively. Probably unhealthily. Let me give you an example.
When I warm up my lunch in the microwave at work, I am incapable of standing there in the kitchen, waiting for it to be ready. I will only allow myself to have lunch when I have to pee and I also coordinate my water consumption and voiceovers for pees and lunch. Because then what I’ll do is set the microwave for six minutes, fill up my water, walk back to my office, drop the water bottle off, then go to the voice booth, record the VO, then go pee, and then make it back to the kitchen to pick up my lunch. And I usually get back within 15 seconds of the microwave beeping. This way I’ve checked off multiple time suckers in six minutes, while getting my step count up, and I can get back to the office and write some more.
I know this sounds insane, I should probably work more on this in therapy, but to go back to driving, that was 20-25 minutes in the morning that I now use to watch talk show interviews on the train from the night before, or read up on industry articles, or listen to whatever celebrity was on a podcast, or finish editing this mailbag. And by taking transit, I’ve just gained all that time back. Nothing makes me happier than maximising time. Time stretching is my kink, I’m a fucking junkie for it, and driving to work just isn’t time efficient in my life.
Sarah’s answer:
Lainey’s mention of SUV drivers compels me to mention that I drive an SUV and am petrified of its dimensions. For reference, I am 5’1.5”, all my life I drove compact cars or rode a motorcycle to get around. Then, in 2021, my beloved but ancient Ford Focus broke down literally in the middle of traffic, the axle cracked clean in two the middle of an intersection. There was no saving it, the cost of repair was way more than the car was worth. So I bit the bullet and bought my first-ever new car. And it’s a Ford Escape, which is a “small” SUV, and it still feels huge around me. I have the seat cranked so far forward and raised all the way up such that no one else can get behind the wheel without adjusting the seat first. I am SO paranoid about lane drift, I rely heavily on the blind spot indicators to keep me between the lines.
That said, I live in Chicago, with robust public transport, and in a very walkable neighborhood. I can go weeks without driving, but I do like having a car to do a big grocery run, and I can do supply drops for the animal shelter where I volunteer. I just can’t see over the hood of my own car!
And… we’re off! The first mailbag of the year ahead of the first live-chat of the year – don’t forget, Golden Globes on Sunday, if you’re watching, watch with us at The Squawk!
Keep squawking and keep gossiping,
Lainey, Sarah, and Jacek
Based solely on Squawk Chat reading, for several days I honestly thought there was some new TV show called HR about an HR department that people were super excited about 🫢😂
“Because then what I’ll do is set the microwave for six minutes, fill up my water, walk back to my office, drop the water bottle off, then go to the voice booth, record the VO, then go pee, and then make it back to the kitchen to pick up my lunch. And I usually get back within 15 seconds of the microwave beeping.”
After watching the Eras doc, I think Lainey and Taylor Swift have a lot in common.