Predicting the 2024 Oscar nominations

Not what I think should be nominated, but what think will be nominated

(A24, Netflix, Searchlight, Universal Pictures, David Fisher/CAROLINE BREHMAN/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

After a couple weeks of delays due to the LA wildfires, the Oscar nominations for 2024 will be announced at ass o’clock AM on Thursday morning by Rachel Sennott and Bowen Yang. I’ll have Thoughts on the nominations once they’re announced, but let’s have some fun handicapping the nominations themselves beforehand.

Something to keep in mind about this year’s Oscars is that momentum basically stopped at the Golden Globes, as the Eaton and Palisades fires both began just two days later, resulting in not only chaos and stress on the ground, but also the cancellation of numerous awards season events. Some were red carpet events like the BAFTA Tea Party, but a lot were the kind of for-your-consideration “handshake” events that introduce potential nominees to Academy voters. A lot of Q&As, cocktail receptions, and the like were cancelled, which means all the facetime potential nominees count on to push their campaigns forward didn’t happen.

The Academy extended the nomination deadline, though, through last Friday to allow more time to watch movies, but as the Academy voter in my life put it “no one watched shit”. About the extended deadline he said: Maybe someone watched movies. I didn’t. No one I know did. We were too busy evacuating. It’s been chaos.

So, don’t count on reasoned, well-considered nominations this year of all years. Now, below are my nomination predictions. This is not a reflection of who I think SHOULD be nominated (Hundreds of Beavers for Best Visual Effects, you cowards!), it’s who I think the Academy, traumatized and tired as they are, will nominate. Also, nominees are ranked alphabetically, not by like, odds or anything involving math. I can’t count well enough to figure that out. And for my own sanity, I’m skipping the shorts categories, there’s no use trying to predict what no one will have watched.