Mailbag for July 26, 2024

My facial treatment, Oscar feels and Bennifer questions, will Taylor Swift weigh in on the election, why all the reboots, how box office numbers are counted, and dad TV shows

(Image Press Agency/NurPhoto/ Claudio Furlan/LaPresse/ ANDY RAIN/EPA-EFE/ J Mayer/ Gregory Pace/Shutterstock)

Dear Squawkers,

When we first launched this Substack last September—almost a whole year!—Lainey wrote about her experience with injectables and her pre-TIFF face prepping routine. Then, a couple weeks ago, I mentioned getting wrinkles lasered off my face, and some people asked about that, so here it is. I actually didn’t get wrinkles lasered off my face, I was making a joke about the passage of time. I DID get a laser facial treatment, but wrinkles weren’t the main objective. I am two-thirds of the way through a 90-day cycle of broadband light and laser treatments to primarily address pigmentation on my face. So far, I’ve gotten two BBL treatments, and one laser treatment called “Moxi”, which is similar to Clear & Brilliant, except Moxi goes a little deeper into the skin (it is non-ablative, though). 

Here's the deal. I am 41, a religious user of SPF since childhood, and with a solid skincare routine. I never, ever sleep in my makeup, I wash and moisturize twice a day, and since my 20s, I’ve gotten 2-3 professional facials a year. Since I have combo skin and am prone to milia—tiny cysts under the skin that present as little white bumps, like a whitehead that never pops—those facials are usually focused on exfoliation and extraction. I’ve been seeing the same esthetician for years now, and I usually combine a dermabrasion treatment with an oxygen facial, plus getting whatever milia I have lanced out. Gross!

But my esthetician started bringing up pigmentation, as well as the developing “11” on my forehead (the vertical lines between my brows), a couple years ago. I ruled out injectables, I’m too wimpy for it. It’s also something that has to be maintained, and I’m not interested in that level of commitment right now. So instead, he recommended a combination of BBL and lasers, going after the pigmentation as it’s my biggest “problem”. I put problem in quotes because pigmentation happens naturally as we age, and there’s nothing inherently wrong with it. I’m just vain enough to care about it. A side benefit of the laser treatment, though, is that it stimulates collagen production in the skin, which can soften fine lines. Honestly, my “11” isn’t even fully formed, so the results there are negligible so far.

But the pigmentation? I can totally tell the difference, especially after the laser. I did my first BBL treatment back in June, then went in for the double whammy just after July 4. Here is a photo of my face 24 hours after BBL and Moxi:

My face 24 hours after BBL and Moxi

Please excuse my severe case of resting bitch face.

It looks and feels like a bad sunburn. I mean it REALLY burned in the first few hours after treatment. I took a couple Tylenol to cope with the discomfort so I could sleep. But the next morning, the burning sensation was gone, but then the itching set it. Ever had a bad sunburn peel? That’s what it felt like. My skin was tight, dry, and itchy. I used a specific post-recovery cream for the first week, which did alleviate the itching some, but it was annoying for several days.

48 hours later, I looked like this:

48 hours later

The redness is lessened, but you can more clearly see the bruising and stippling that results from the BBL. You can also start to see dark patches and black dots that sort of look like blackheads. They aren’t, that’s dead skin rising to the surface and beginning to flake off from the laser.

Side angle, 48 hours later

I was just so itchy! The hardest thing was not peeling my skin off and just letting it flake naturally. Mostly, it did when I washed my face, but sometimes I would look down and see flakes wherever I happened to be. Gross!

But then, one week later, whoa. I looked in the mirror and all the redness had faded, and so had the dark patches. The dry skin was almost entirely gone except for little bits around my hairline. I could immediately tell a difference in my skin. Here’s my face one week after the BBL/Moxi treatment:

My face one week after the BBL/Moxi treatment

In week two I had a minor skin eruption, but it cleared up within a couple days. Now in week three, I can still tell my skin is overall brighter than before. I still have one BBL treatment left, and I’m anxious to see the final result. So far, I am really happy with what I’m getting from these treatments, though as I said, the forehead “11” isn’t much changed from before. That’s okay, though. I’m not trying to look 25, I just want to look good for my 40s. Now if I could just figure out how not to look like every photo is a mugshot…

Onto the mailbag!

Question from Sierra: This might be super basic, but in Lainey's last post on Angelina Jolie, she says that "experts have put her on watch for a possible nominated role." How do experts source their information to make predictions? I'm sure I've read this sentiment several times, but it never occurred to me to ask. Do they get advanced screeners; is it more of an insider tip situation? Or just general predictions based on their experience in the industry?

Question from Andrea2: I also would like to know how "the industry" decides who is Oscar bait, prior to the films being screened. And if Lainey/Sarah could weigh in with their best guesses regarding the Unstoppable red carpet???

Sarah’s answer:

I’m taking Sierra’s and Andrea2’s questions together, since they touch on the same thing, which is how the “experts” put together award predictions. It’s more or less based on experience and precedence. For instance, in the chat related to Timothee Chalamet’s Oscar hopes for A Complete Unknown, I mentioned that while the Academy loves to reward young women, they’re much stingier with young men. Adrien Brody is the youngest Best Actor winner, he was 29 when he won. Meanwhile, Emma Stone has TWO Best Actress Oscars at 35. That’s precedent—there’s a clear pattern between Best Actor and Actress relative to age.

Angelina Jolie attends the 77th Annual Tony Awards in New Yorkon June 16, 2024 (Gregory Pace/Shutterstock)

And then there’s experience, the longer you do this, the more you see those patterns and kind of get a feel for what falls into those known areas. Like with Angelina Jolie, she’s an early tip for the Best Actress race because Pablo Larraín’s previous films, Jackie and Spencer, both resulted in Best Actress nominations for their stars, Natalie Portman and Kristen Stewart, respectively. The combination of Larraín, an iconic woman in history, and an iconic actress is a pattern, Maria and Angelina fit into it.

It really is just a gut feeling. Over the course of TIFF, I will regularly text Lainey with updates about films we can deprioritize because I just saw and I know, gut feeling, it’s not a serious contender. That’s usually based on quality, but sometimes it’s just knowing something is too weird for the Academy, or going the other way, too blatantly Oscar bait (recently some of those films have been failing, such as George Clooney’s The Boys on the Boat. Twenty years ago, even ten years ago, that would’ve gotten a half a dozen nominations in the craft categories at least). The longer I’ve done this, the more comfortable I am making those calls. That doesn’t mean I’m right all the time, I’m not, but I’m not NOT right a lot, too.

Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck view townhouses on the Upper East Side New York on March 30, 2024 (J Mayer/Shutterstock)

As for the Unstoppable carpet, I assume you’re referring to its premiere at TIFF and whether Bennifer will show. It’s co-produced by Ben Affleck and Matt Damon’s shingle, Artists Equity, and Jennifer Lopez’s shingle, Nuyorican Productions. JLo also stars in the film. I expect her to be there, for sure, as the highest profile cast member. Affleck doesn’t have to show, though. Matt Damon could rep their company. If Affleck DOES go, though, my gossip assumption is that there’s still something cooking with Bennifer. If he doesn’t go, especially if he doesn’t go but Damon does, I will take that as a sign that they really are over and we’re just waiting for the announcement. Assuming it doesn’t come before then. There’s the whole month of August to get through.

Question from JC: Any predictions if Taylor Swift weighs in on the 2024 presidential election? Other than a get out the vote campaign? She's dipped a toe in a bit before. Given her absolute takeover of the past 2 years and with Eras coming to an end in December, does she have anything to lose? We've seen from her documentary that her team has a LOT of trepidation about her saying anything political the last time she dipped her toe into politics, but I mean, she's kind of untouchable at this point.

Lainey’s Answer:

I’m not the Taylor Swift expert here at The Squawk. That honour belongs to resident Swift Scholar, Ksenia, and I look forward to her comments below. Ksenia, give us a bible!

As for me and my not-as-specialised-as-Ksenia prediction, I don’t know that I have one yet because I feel like maybe she hasn’t decided yet. Taylor Swift is smart, she reads the tea leaves, and it’s only July, the leaves in the tea have so many more stories to tell. So, right now, she’s watching and waiting and assessing.

“How does it feel to shape the wind to your will?” is what my beloved Yabushige asks Toranaga in Shōgun. Remember what Toranaga-sama said in response?

“I don’t control the wind, I only study it.”

Taylor Swift definitely studies the wind. Or, rather, she studies social media, she’s well aware of what people are saying, who is saying it, and most importantly, how what is being said will affect her.

Taylor Swift performs on stage during the 'The Eras Tour' at the San Siro stadium in Milan, Italy on July 13, 2024 (Image Press Agency/NurPhoto/ Shutterstock)

But this is also about timing. We know the Biden campaign was courting her. We can presume that Vice President Harris’s campaign wouldn’t mind her endorsement. That said, it hasn’t even been a week – and while I’m not American and definitely NOT an expert on the state of American politics, you don’t have to be to have seen what Madame VP has done in just a few short days. She doesn’t need Taylor Swift right now, not this week anyway. Between the coconut tree and the BRAT boost, Kamala Harris couldn’t have gotten off to a better start. The money is coming in. She has secured the delegates and, unofficially, the nomination. Beyoncé has given her “Freedom” and the new ad they just cut with the song… it’s so good, so well-edited I wonder if our Queen B gave notes. 

If you want to get really horny and haven’t already, I suggest reading this NYT article from Wednesday that breaks down the first 48 hours of Team Harris’s strategy and how quickly and fucking effectively they mobilised from the moment the Vice President found out that Biden was stepping down. They are showing the shit out of their work. And that includes a much better understanding of social media and what young people respond to than we’ve seen from the president and the opposition. On Tuesday, The Hollywood Reporter published an article about the online response to the Vice President’s ascension.

TikTok in particular has exploded with Kamala content, and this is exactly the demo that Biden was failing to inspire. This does not mean that the people creating TikToks are going to put down the phone and go to the polls. But it’s the energy, the buzz, the vibes, as the kids say. The vibes now are good. This is the candidate who’s inspiring good vibes, so far at least, among a generation that had up to this point been rather apathetic about the election. And pop culture has everything to do with it. After all, Charli XCX’s BRAT is the album and attitude of the summer – and now the youths have decided that Kamala Harris is that brat who embodies the spirit of the music. You couldn’t script a more organic and delightfully unexpected collision between pop and politics.

Charli XCX arrives for the 2023 BRIT Awards ceremony at The O2 arena in London February 11, 2023 (ANDY RAIN/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

So, to go back to Taylor… why are we even talking about her? I’m not asking to be shady. The point I’m trying to make is that while Charli XCX is certainly benefitting from the internet deciding that her album is Kamala Harris’s campaign soundtrack, Charli herself hasn’t overshadowed the Vice President. All the old people out there who are baffled by this hilariously spontaneous and amazingly effective viral development, the ones who need all the CNN explainers about it, still couldn’t identify Charli XCX from Sabrina Carpenter. Which means that for her purposes, the VP remains the main character. The minute Taylor Swift enters the chat though, she becomes the main character. I mean, she’s literally said nothing and we’re here talking about her!

Sarah’s answer:

I doubt Taylor does more than a generic “get out and vote” message closer to the election, though I feel like she’s more likely to comment directly on a race in Tennessee than she is the presidential election. Though I could see her maybe doing a shady post with her cats as a clapback at JD Vance for his asinine “childless cat ladies” comment. The thing about Taylor, though, is that she doesn’t have to say it directly, she can post a cat emoji and like a blue tick mark and her fans will interpret the meaning and mobilize.

Question from Patty: Why so many reboots?

Sarah’s answer:

Because people go see them. There is an element of risk-adverse executives prioritizing remakes/reboots because they’re “safer” than investing in original ideas—The Fall Guy would like a word!—but people DO go see a lot of remakes/reboots at the cinema. If more of them fell of a cliff like The Fall Guy, there might be less of them because that risk-reward formula would start looking different. But for every Fall Guy, there’s a Twisters and a Mean Girls, and so it continues.

Ryan Gosling at the Los Angeles Premiere Of Universal Pictures' 'The Fall Guy' on April 30, 2024 in Hollywood (Image Press Agency/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)

Question from Kristin: I have a question for Sarah about box office. One of the things I hear from authors I follow is that presales of their books are hugely impactful for their publishers. How does box office work? If a movie opens this Friday, but I buy tickets for the following Tuesday or Thursday (or even the following Friday), does that count towards this week's numbers? Or does it count for the week I actually see the movie?

Sarah’s answer:

The tickets you buy count for the date of the screening. If you buy a ticket on a Tuesday for Friday night, that’s a Friday ticket. But they do track advanced sales as its own figure (“they” is Rentrak, which is part of Comscore). For instance, a film might report an opening weekend of $100 million, of which $20 million is presales, but they’re still counting the presales of Thursday-Sunday tickets. Pre-sold Monday tickets will count toward Monday’s gross. Statistics!

Question from Kate: Sarah, you talk about dad movies - so funny and v helpful - but what about dad TV shows? Need some recs from your pa! 😂

Sarah’s answer:

My dad likes three movies: Patton, The Godfather, and Top Gun: Maverick. He likes no TV shows.

LOL, no, that’s not quite true. But he isn’t super invested in TV, he’s usually happy to let my mom control the remote and then put on his headphones and listen to some dusty audiobook. He does like nature documentaries, and he likes anything Ken Burns does. Most recently, he liked Manhunt on Apple TV+, about, well, the manhunt to catch John Wilkes Booth after the assassination of Abraham Lincoln. Surprisingly, he didn’t like Yellowstone. But he DID like Mayor of Kingstown, Reservation Dogs, and The Offer, the show about the making of The Godfather. Naturally.

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As always, thanks for squawking with us!

Keep squawking and keep gossiping,

Sarah & Lainey